Carousels have always been a popular metaphor for the annual NFL head coaching cycle, and they tend to spin fastest between the end of the regular season and Super Bowl – 2024 being no exception despite modified rules teams had to follow when interviewing prospective candidates.
Yet musical chairs are also an apt analogy – maybe never more so than at a time when it doesn’t appear there’s going to be a seat in 2024 for Bill Belichick, the man who’s won more Super Bowls than any coach in league history. That outcome became increasingly apparent Thursday, when the Atlanta Falcons – team owner Arthur Blank and his lieutenants had multiple meetings with Belichick – hired Raheem Morris instead.
Where does that leave BB? Here’s where things stand:
He was expected to be a hot commodity after he and the New England Patriots mutually parted on Jan. 11. But the Falcons are the only team known to have interviewed Belichick, 71, since. It’s currently unclear if he wasn’t right for Atlanta, Atlanta wasn’t right for him … or maybe this was another "mutual" decision. Regardless, Belichick won’t be joining the franchise seven years after breaking its collective heart with the Pats’ legendary second-half comeback from a 28-3 deficit in Super Bowl 51.
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In a fairly surprising move, they kicked Pete Carroll, who’s one year older than Belichick, upstairs on Jan. 10. Like the Falcons, they also lost a Super Bowl stunner to New England. With the job sitting open, nothing theoretically stops Seattle from bringing Belichick in. However he’d almost certainly have to fit into an established football operations structure already topped with long-serving GM John Schneider, who has a highly successful track record in terms of talent evaluation. Seems telling that there’s been no connection between Belichick and Seattle to date, especially since the Seahawks have interviewed more than a half-dozen candidates.
They also have no apparent interest in Belichick. And that probably makes sense given Washington and its new search committee initiated the organization’s overhaul by appointing Adam Peters as general manager, a post he’s never held elsewhere in the league. The team has also been strongly linked to Ben Johnson as its next head coach, though the Commanders wouldn’t be able to hire the Detroit Lions’ offensive coordinator until their season ends.
This month serves as a stark reminder that the league’s landscape can change dramatically, suddenly and unexpectedly, the departures of Belichick, Carroll and the Tennessee Titans’ Mike Vrabel testament to that. Trying to project what’s going to happen a year from now is a bit of a fool’s errand, but here are eight teams sure to be under a microscope in 2024:
Despite a 4-13 record, rookie HC Jonathan Gannon largely kept this crew competitive as it awaited QB Kyler Murray's midseason return from ACL reconstruction – and he likely won’t return to 100% until next season. But if things go south in 2024, could there be outreach to Belichick from Cards GM Monti Ossenfort, who spent 15 years in the Patriots front office?
They’ve had a pretty good thing going in Western New York, including assumption of AFC East dominance the past four seasons after the Patriots dynasty collapsed. But could a team that hasn’t reached the Super Bowl in three decades consider a drastic pivot if QB Josh Allen and Co. remain maxed out at very good under HC Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane?
Despite a slow start, they improved by four wins to 7-10 in Year 2 under Matt Eberflus. But the draft and free agency are expected to bring another major talent infusion in 2024, when more will almost be surely expected of a club that hasn't won a playoff game in 13 years.
Darth Vader Jones is only going to accept a finite number of apologies. Sure seems like Mike McCarthy was fortunate to issue one more earlier this month.
Their charge to 9-8 in 2022 and the AFC South crown felt a lot different from this year’s collapse to 9-8, which concluded sans playoff tickets. Owner Shad Khan isn’t afraid of big swings – Urban Meyer, whoops – and might be compelled to take one if QB Trevor Lawrence and a talented roster underachieve again.
Belichick has a strong affinity for the franchise where he grew up as a sublimely gifted coordinator, one who earned his first two Super Bowl rings in 1986 and ’90 while orchestrating a legendary defense. Could be a relatively easy marriage if divorce from HC Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen becomes necessary after a major regression in 2023.
Would Belichick return to the Patriots’ supposed archrivals? Could he? He’s already been the nominal HC of the NYJ on two occasions, though never coached a game for them. However the club is far more stable from an ownership perspective than when Belichick abruptly left 24 years ago before turning up in New England shortly thereafter. The roster is also primed to win now – which coach Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas probably need to do extensively in 2024 with QB Aaron Rodgers back. If not?
Nick Sirianni is 36-20 over three seasons, all ending with playoff berths plus that near-miss defeat in Super Bowl 57. Yet the 2023 Eagles also appeared to have a championship-caliber roster before losing six of their final seven games – the disappointment plainly evident on owner Jeff Lurie’s face during a decisive wild-card ouster in Tampa. Last year, Sirianni lost his offensive and defensive coordinator to head coaching gigs; this year he fired both in a bid to get this team back on track. But if it’s not humming a year from now, might he be out of work if Lurie decides he needs a mastermind’s touch?
What? A dour septuagenarian who traffics in clipped answers and hoodies? But before you dismiss the possibility, understand that Belichick has a renowned sense of humor behind closed doors and is generally quite comfortable offering expansive, insightful answers to football questions that steer clear of the state secrets surrounding his teams.
A TV gig, whether as a studio or broadcast analyst, would also theoretically afford Belichick opportunities for further networking throughout the league while evaluating other teams, players and facilities. And don’t forget, he’s already won a Sports Emmy for his work with NFL Films and NFL Network on 2019’s "NFL 100 All-Time Team" series.
Belichick has 333 victories, including playoffs, as head coach with the Cleveland Browns (1991-95) and Patriots (2000-23). It is believed he wants to, at least, notch the 15 additional ones he’d need to overtake Hall of Famer Don Shula’s standard (347).
He hasn’t appeared publicly since his final news conference in Foxborough two weeks ago. But Belichick left little doubt that he planned to continue coaching.
“It's with so many fond memories and thoughts that I think about the Patriots. I will always be a Patriot,” he said. “I look forward to coming back here. But, at this time, we're going to move on. I look forward, am excited for the future.”
***Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.